Tampa Squeaker

The National Hurricane Center is shifting their forecasts a bit to the west, following the NOGAPS model lead. So now, NOGAPS calls for the storm to just barely miss Tampa, pass on by, and then shift NW and make landfall around Mobile, AL.

The FNMOC Web Site has yet to present the latest GFS model forecast, but checking on another Web Site for that, I note GFS has the storm nearly miss Tampa, but then jog NE and come into the Suwannee River area, and clip Tampa along the way.

The NOGAPS NW shift hinges on how rapidly a high-pressure system develops in the Illinois-Indiana area. Since the high pressure system doesn't even exist yet, it's hard to say too much about it. The GFS model has a slower-developing high than the NOGAPS model does, which is why GFS brings the storm into Florida rather than Alabama.

In any event, Tampa will be so close to the storm you'll be able to look out the window and watch the porpoises fly by. (so to speak)

Strength is hard to call - Class 1, most likely, but Class 2 can't be ruled out.