Heading NNE

Fay looks like it's going to start crossing Florida, in a line stretching from Ft. Myers to Daytona Beach. At some point, Fay's eastward movement will stall, and the storm will turn in a westerly direction.

The NOGAPS model has the storm stall while it is still over land. On the other hand, the GFS model carries the storm back over the Atlantic before it's eastward movement stalls. If the storm stalls over the warm waters of the Atlantic, that will be very bad, because the storm is likely to strengthen. On the other hand, if it stalls over land, it won't strengthen, and will lose energy.

It is still possible Tampa won't get it by the storm, or at least not hit badly. It's going to be close, though.