Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Spinning Away At Cape Canaveral

And so Fay just spins away at Cape Canaveral, drifting ever so slightly to the north, and bit by bit, losing strength. That is a good thing! The lack of movement is bothersome, but at least it didn't head east where it could gain strength.

NOGAPS suggests a northward movement along the coast, finally coming inland around Daytona Beach and lingering in the Suwannee River basin tomorrow evening before finally heading into Georgia/Alabama.

GFS still forecasts the storm will pick up strength, cross Florida, park tomorrow evening around Cedar Key (where its rain bands will be close enough to Tampa to cause rain there), before heading west and raking the Gulf Coast before coming ashore in Alabama.

NOGAPS consistently projects less rainfall than GFS.

I'm still leaning towards the NOGAPS solution (NOGAPS performed less well than GFS regarding the Florida crossing, but it seems to be outperforming GFS now).

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