The Pleasant North Shores of Lake Okeechobee

Currently the eye of Fay is at the north shore of Lake Okeechobee. It's beginning to head straight north.

NOGAPS suggests it will move parallel to the eastern shore of Florida, maybe just along the coast, steadily weakening, and eventually moving into Georgia.

GFS suggests the eye will move offshore (though not as far as it suggested last night), strengthen, come back ashore, and cross the state to strike Tampa on Friday before moving into the Gulf.

I'm thinking NOGAPS is correct, because generally it's a little better with the timing of the mid-latitude circulation than GFS is, as a general rule, and now that Fay is as far north as Florida, the mid-latitude circulation will determine its destiny.

So, we'll see.