Fay Begins Coming Ashore Again

Fay's forward movement is so sluggish that it's a rain menace wherever it hits. Melbourne, FL is going to be a real mess before this is through - it's been raining there, hard, for more than a day. Mercifully, after being lashed all day, Daytona Beach is now in the eye. But rains there could pick up again soon.

Here's more on Melbourne:

The storm could dump 30 inches of rain in some areas of Florida and the National Hurricane Center said up to 22 inches had already fallen near Melbourne, just south of Cape Canaveral on the state's central Atlantic coast.

For the short term, both NOGAPS and GFS models seem to agree that the storm will move slowly across northern Florida. Already the storm seems to be coming ashore again, heading WNW. After that, Fay will then cross over into the Gulf of Mexico and rake the NE Gulf Coast. Such rain as there is should be mostly over in Tampa by Friday evening.

Then the storm will stall again around Mobile, AL and then either head north (NOGAPS) or reverse direction, begin falling apart, and sweep across Alabama, Georgia, and both Carolinas (GFS). The GFS prediction would be a canonical, standard finish to a tropical storm, and I think that's most likely to occur.

Tampa will get rain from Fay on Thursday and Friday, but compared to many other places in Florida, Tampa's experience with this storm will be rather mild.