Saturday, September 16, 2017

It's Not Over Until December

Today's GFS forecast shows Hurricane Jose NOT making landfall in the Boston area next week, but instead staying off the coast. If so, it won't be nearly as bad as originally feared. Still, things will be pretty windy at Cape Cod.

There is now a Tropical Storm Lee, but it is likely to die out.

Not so with Tropical Storm Maria. This new storm will likely strike some of the same Caribbean islands Hurricane Irma struck, hitting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and some of the Bahamas before strengthening for landfall, which could be as far south as Jacksonville, but will more-likely be towards North Carolina and tidewater Virginia in the September 25th time frame.

There is a possibility of tropical storm impacts related to Tropical Storm Norma in the Pacific. That storm will stall near Cabo San Lucas and slowly disintegrate, leading to surprisingly-heavy rains in New Mexico, and possibly southeastern Arizona or western Texas. People frequently ignore these Pacific storms, and they can catch you completely flat-footed. (When I lived in Tucson in 1983, I was shocked at the heavy flooding resulting as Hurricane Octave slowly disintegrated.)

There is also a hypothesized storm in the September 28th time frame. Current modeling shows the storm hitting the Yucatan of Mexico, crossing the Yucatan peninsula, and heading into mainland Mexico. Since the disturbance doesn't yet exist, there's a chance it might not ever exist, but the southern Caribbean is a noted trouble spot, so it bears watching. The storminess straddles Central America, and could appear in either Atlantic or Pacific oceans, or both. And once a storm starts, it can surprise with where it goes.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Head Turner

My Neighborhood These Days

This fellow is passing through my neighborhood, as is the woman we call "The Queen," just out of sight on the street corner. Midtown is migrating south, bringing with them their insider code.

Opening Day of Zucchini Season

Bitcoin is a Fraud

The perfect tool for ransomware:
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon did not mince words when asked about the popularity of virtual currency bitcoin.

Dimon said at an investment conference that the digital currency was a "fraud" and that his firm would fire anyone at the bank that traded it "in a second."

Dimon, speaking at a Barclays investment conference Tuesday, said he supported blockchain technology for tracking payments but that trading bitcoin itself was against the bank's rules. He added that bitcoin was "stupid" and "far too dangerous."

"A Crisis With No Simple Solution”

The industry will never be the same again:
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—The pornography industry has likely suffered permanent damage as a result of its unfortunate association with the Texas senator Ted Cruz, industry sources said on Tuesday.

Porn, which takes in annual profits of fifteen billion dollars, could see those revenues decimated if, as some industry experts fear, users begin to have intrusive thoughts involving Senator Cruz.

“For porn producers, this is a crisis with no simple solution,” Harland Dorrinson, an industry insider, said. “If you warn viewers not to think about Ted Cruz, there’s a real danger that that’s all they’ll think about.”

I Can Make Your Student Loans Disappear

I'm Into Fitness

Furafic Park

Maternal Love

Everyone in Australia Hates on the White Ibis

Totally funny, and totally true!

What If It's A Big Hoax?

Steve and Jan Receive SARTA's "Lifetime Achievement" Award


I Have No Idea What I'm Doing

Midnight Oil - The Dead Heart

My mood. An old favorite. Funny how you can't turn your eyes away from Ayers Rock.

1880s Cat Photo

Maybe one of the first.

Monday, September 11, 2017

Report From Tampa

(Photo from the Weather Channel)

My friends in Tampa report:

Good morning Marc – We are good here. I haven’t gone outside yet, but we appear to be fine. In fact we never lost power the entire time. And the screens on our back deck appear to be intact. Thanks for all the time and effort you spent for us. I think what helped us the most was the storm went inland and passed east of us. Storm surge pictures from Sarasota (about 75 miles south of us) didn’t look too bad. But we haven’t seen all the news yet.

Now do another great job for us and keep Jose away. OK?

I reply:

Glad to hear you and your charges are safe, and as happy as can be reasonably expected!

From radar, it appeared as if you got part of the Irma's eye as it pushed past. That's a memory, for sure! Maximum wind speeds from the International Airport were 41 mph, with gusts to 63 mph (roughly 11 p.m.). Those wind speeds are uncomfortable, but not intolerable.

A Facebook friend with a daughter in Sarasota says they didn't get expected storm surge there. The storm's path inland was fortunate. Another Facebook friend is without power in Jacksonville. Haven't heard from another friend in Orlando.

Jose is a menace to the Bahamas, and will be circling very close to there over the next week, but available indications are Jose will eventually break free and head up the Atlantic coast, with possible landfalls from North Carolina, northwards. So, in a week, someone else farther north will be under this kind of stress.

Irma's Eye Visits Tampa

Looks like my Tampa friends have received that rarest of visits - the eye of a hurricane. Hoping for the best.

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Heading North by Northwest

So far, Irma is following the modeled forecast path towards Tampa very closely. The eye will pass very close to Key West in a few hours. I'm impressed by the tug of the trough along the East Coast, trying to drag Irma north. Even though Irma likely will pass near Tampa, there is still an outside chance Irma might swing up Florida's east coast, or follow the peninsula straight up. Some possibilities are still open.