Fay's Progress

Forecasts nudged slightly to the east. The GFS model places Fay's closest approach to Tampa at about 50 miles east: the NOGAPS model, on the other hand, says about 50 miles west. Both are closer in timing now, with closest approach to Tampa forecast to be about 5 p.m. Tuesday evening.

The storm won't be all-powerful: it's not an Ivan or Katrina. Still 80 - 90 mph winds may be possible.

The National Hurricane Center compares model predictions here. In general, I prefer NOGAPS western path, because I think these models are being initialized with the tropical storm placed just a bit too far north. But there are still land interactions with Cuba to contend with, and the hurricane's path could jog a bit in response.

THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR.