Fay Update

The forecasts are making microshifts again, this time to the west. NOGAPS brings the storm west of Tampa, so the city is spared (landfall in Biloxi, MS). GFS brings it directly through Tampa.

Currently the strength of the storm looks like it'll be a "small" hurricane (Class 1) when it passes Tampa.

For the last half hour, I've been playing and replaying forecast animations, trying to figure out which scenario makes more sense. I'm thinking the NOGAPS near-miss forecast makes most sense. There is a high pressure system over much of the eastern half of the U.S., which will tend to deflect the storm westwards. In addition there is some indication a small low pressure system will develop over NE N.M. and begin moving across the southern plains, acting as something of a draw, pulling the storm west. In any event, even with this optimistic forecast, the storm will still pass very close to Tampa (reminiscent of Dennis).