92L, West Of Puerto Rico

Looking at the forecasts, it seems most likely that the storm (currently called 92L) will move up the eastern coast of Florida, and make landfall along the Georgia, North Florida, or South Carolina coast.

The consensus at Florida Hurricane blog also seems to support the storm moving up the east Florida coast.

The NOGAPS model supports the east coast track, but the GFS model supports a track moving directly up the Florida peninsula. The differences likely stem not from model details, but from where the storm is initialized in the models. The NOGAPS model initializes the storm just east of Puerto Rico: the GFS model initializes the storm SW of Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the storm itself at the instant seems to be just west of Puerto Rico, and trying to split the difference between these two model forecasts.

With a trough over the eastern U.S., there seems no good reason for the storm to go as far west as Tampa..... But we'll see.....

So, it is likely that the storm will menace the Miami area by Tuesday, and make landfall around Jacksonville or points north sometime Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center saith:

ABNT20 KNHC 151142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO. WHILE THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...

ALTHOUGH WHEN AND WHERE A DEPRESSION MIGHT FORM IS UNCERTAIN...IN PART DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND MASS OF HISPANIOLA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.