More Ivan

Today, the forecast has changed only slightly. The NOGAPS model nudged eastwards, bringing the storm ashore at Lake Ponchartrain, LA, whereas the GFS model shifted westwards, bringing the storm ashore at Mobile, AL. The most interesting feature is that the model predictions have never been closer. That indicates that the uncertainty in modeled storm path prediction is beginning to diminish as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC (a lagging indicator) has finally moved their forecast storm path as far west as Mobile, AL.