More Ivan

The NHC consensus has caught up to where the NOGAPS model was yesterday. NHC model consensus now puts the storm track into Pensacola (on Wednesday, I think). NHC today indicates they have no reason to change their forecast from yesterday.

Nevertheless, today, the NOGAPS model is pushing Ivan yet farther west, moving the storm onshore in the Mississippi Delta area of Louisiana. The NOGAPS model is pushing the storm through the watery gap between Mexico and Cuba, so it is possible the storm will hardly impact Cuba at all - maybe just at the western tip.

Indeed, the storm avoided a direct hit on Jamaica by jogging farther to the west (even without a direct hit, Jamaica suffered quite a bit).

There was some concern two or three days ago that the storm could abruptly make a break for Florida after it passed over Cuba. That concern is an discussion artifact about diverging model predictions, and there is no reason to believe a sharp in direction is likely. There are no strong upper level winds around to make such an abrupt shift possible.

If the storm keeps moving west, I would be surprised if Tampa sees winds even as high as 20 mph. There are indications that there will be afternoon thundershowers for days after Ivan passes - basically normal Florida summer weather.

My thought is that Ivan will avoid inflicting Tampa with tropical storm level winds - maybe 20 mph. The NHC is being overcautious about moving the storm track west, to keep Floridians on their toes, but to the detriment of people in Louisiana, who may be unprepared for the calamity of a direct hit.

Keep an eye out where on Cuba the storm hits: the farther west, the better for Tampa, especially if the storm avoids Cuba altogether. Right now, with the current history of NOGAPS leading an overcautious NHC to the west, if I were Tampa's shoes, I'd stay put.