Marc's Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Jeanne:
It will be interesting to see what happens with this storm (weakened today to a tropical depression but maybe strengthening again soon). Forecasts now show the storm as staying well off the Florida coast, and moving north, off the coast of South Carolina, but the forecasts diverge about what happens after that. The GFS model shows the storm slowly getting dragged eastwards by the cold front carrying remnants of Ivan. The NOGAPS model, which brings the storm a little closer to shore than the GFS model, and hence a little more under the influence of the developing high pressure system centered in PA, shows the competing eastwards and westwards forces making the storm stall off the coast. The storm is finally brought into the SC coast, painfully slowly, about a week from now.

Hurricane Javier:
Moisture from the hurricane has been working into northern Mexico (and now portions of SE AZ, southern NM, and far western TX) for the last day. Rain showers have already started in AZ's White Mountains, but the big plume of moisture has yet to arrive. It's possible the storm itself will be brought into the Colorado River Valley, similar to the way Nora came in back in 1997 (which, as I recall, despite bringing heavy rains to Yuma, brought very little rain to Phoenix). Nevertheless, this should be fun!