Marc's Tropical Update

(To Friends in Tampa, FL)
Things are going to be dull in Tampa - maybe afternoon showers at the most. Hope tedium isn't a problem. After all, tedium is welcome today, in Pensacola.

(To Friends in West Palm Beach, FL)
Tropical Storm (likely Hurricane) Jeanne will approach West Palm Beach on Sunday night. The storm will approach Florida's east coast and veer north. Jeanne is in pursuit of Ivan, and if Ivan lingers too long in the U.S., then Jeanne will come into the Florida coast. Currently, the GFS model calls for an early departure of Ivan, so Jeanne never gets within 200 miles of the coast. The NOGAPS model calls for a later departure, and thus brings Jeanne nearly up to the coast. Ivan has got to be completely off the eastern coast by Sunday night, however, when Jeanne makes its closest approach, for all to go well.

(To Friends in Aiken, SC)
Then Tropical Storm Jeanne comes your way! Starting on Monday morning, a strengthening high pressure system over Pennsylvania will drive Jeanne's moisture through Aiken, SC, clear across Dixie, ending up in Missouri (!) by Wednesday morning.

(To friends in Phoenix, AZ)
The GFS model is finally registering the coming Hurricane Javier rain event for the desert SW, starting Sunday morning and ending Monday night. The event might be highly focused. Currently, both NOGAPS and GFS models are showing a narrow plume of heavy rainfall, affecting the Colorado River Valley the most (interesting, since it is normally so dry there), but there will be rain for Phoenix as well. It should be an interesting time in the SW!