Thursday, October 14, 2010

Paula's Peregrinations

Today, Paula is skating along the northwestern coast of Cuba, and heading for the Keys. The NOGAPS model forecast for the next week is that Paula will make a loop, by travelling across the southern tip of Florida into the Bahamas, weaken considerably, reverse direction, and then return to Florida as a remnant low, and travel up the eastern Florida coast. So, nearly the entire Florida coast from Ft. Myers to Cape Canaveral will be affected by Paula in one way or another as it makes its journey over the next week.

NOGAPS also forecasts that there will be another storm in the pipeline that follows a similar path to Paula and travels northwards from the Caribbean Sea. I’m hoping that this storm, hypothetical so far, never actually generates. As noted before, NOGAPS has a weakness in that it allows it to spawn tropical storms too readily, so there are some grounds for hope.

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