The Folks In Cancun Got Lucky

I feel like I blew the forecast on this. I didn't forsee the storm turning the way it did, and I didn't understand how fast it was moving.

Nevertheless, the news is good, so far. Cancun was largely-spared:

CANCUN, Mexico (AP) — Hurricane Paula roared off Mexico's top vacation resort of Cancun on Wednesday without immediate reports of major damage, and it was projected to veer into western Cuba's cigar-producting country.

The Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, swiped at the island of Cozumel and Isla Mujeres overnight during its northward trek. Late Wednesday morning, the storm was centered about 80 miles southeast of Cabo Catoche on the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Paula was expected to shift to the northeast and weaken slightly on a course that would carry it into western Cuba by Wednesday night or early Thursday. The center said a tropical storm watch has been issued along a swath through the Florida Keys.

...There were no immediate reports of major problems in Cancun or other resort areas. Quintana Roo state officials said they could guarantee the security of all 27,000 tourists currently in the state during the October offseason.

"We can declare the coasts completely out of danger," Quintana Roo Gov. Felix Gonzalez said. "The hurricane is leaving, and we can lift the red alert."

He said some 1,500 islanders evacuated from Isla Holbox would return home Wednesday along with 60 fishermen from Isla Contoy. Transportation resumed to Cozumel, where there were about 1,800 tourists, after being suspended overnight.

Quintana Roo state prosecutors said a U.S. man drowned when he went swimming in heavy surf near his hotel. Mickey Goodwin, a 54-year-old Texas resident, ignored warnings and red flags alerting to dangerous waters, authorities said in a statement.

In Cancun, more than 20 domestic and international flights had been canceled.

Dozens of boat owners in Cancun had hauled yachts and other vessels to shore, while sea tour operators canceled reservations. Along Cancun's popular strip of night clubs and discotheques, workers took down billboards and other large objects ahead of heavy winds.

The current forecast is interesting. It shows Paula following a looping trajectory and essentially stalling along the northwestern Cuban coast for days, dissipating somewhat, then reforming a bit and resuming its northward journey into the Gulf of Mexico. (Tampa is likely to get at least some showers at some point from all this.)