The Models Require Direction

A confused picture today, with the models reverting to previous forecasts. The models require direction that they aren’t getting from the real world.

The NOGAPS model suggests Gustav will head straight for New Orleans by Monday evening. And the new storm, Hanna, will bobble around and move towards South Carolina (instead of Coral Springs, FL) by the following weekend.

The GFS model suggests Gustav will crash into the Mobile/Pensacola area, then bounce west along the Gulf coast all the way to Texas. Hanna, meanwhile, would never approach the coast.

And there is strong set of storms in Mexico’s Bay of Campeche that bears watching as well. I wonder what the National Hurricane Center is doing in that regard?

So, really, it’s still too early to say what will happen – all these scenarios are still plausible.