Gustav/Hanna Update

The forecasts are shifting Hanna to the east again, so the forecast isn’t quite as grim as it was last night. Instead of mowing Florida from stern to stem, NOGAPS forecasts Hanna will merely wipe out the coast from Cocoa Beach, FL, to Wilmington, NC, hitting Jacksonville and Charleston particularly hard, as well as the entire state of SC, by Thursday/Friday. GFS keeps Hanna out to sea longer, finally bringing the storm onshore at Myrtle Beach, SC. Both models bring the storm into the Washington, D.C. area after landfall.

It is conceivable that Hanna might miss an Eastern Coast landfall altogether if the high pressure system over the East Coast can manage to keep it offshore (but I’m not betting on it).

Both models bring Gustav into Louisiana by Monday/Tuesday, with some differences on exactly where they hit the state hardest. It will be hard on the state for sure.