Wilma Update

The model forecasts are beginning to converge regarding the speed at which Hurricane Wilma will move, which apparently will consist of a very rapid movement towards and across Florida. Rapid movement suggests a more-northerly trajectory. The storm will likely not dither as much as originally thought in the Yucatan (the storm side-swiped the coast and didn't pass that far on-land).

The NOGAPS model now suggests a Monday morning landfall, probably about 8 a.m., in the vicinity of Fort Myers, FL, taking about 6 hours to cross the Florida peninsula. The GFS model also suggests a Monday morning landfall, probably about 5 a.m., in the vicinity of Punta Gorda, FL, also taking only about 6 hours to cross the Florida peninsula.

That means Monday is likely to be quite interesting, with about a 12-hour window in Tampa of heavy rain and winds. If the storm is a Category 2 storm, my guess is the sustained winds will be in the 40 mph range in Tampa. As mentioned before, the rains will be quite intense. But fortunately the storm won't linger - it will come in fast and furious, and then be gone.