Slow Down, Wilma!

The models are beginning to diverge again, mostly regarding the speed at which Hurricane Wilma will move. The NOGAPS model suggests a Monday evening landfall, probably about 6 p.m., in the vicinity of Naples, FL, taking about 8 hours to cross the Florida peninsula. The GFS model suggests a Monday mid-morning landfall, probably about 10 a.m., in the vicinity of Punta Gorda, FL, taking only about 4 hours to cross the Florida peninsula.

I'm skeptical that a hurricane can whip across Florida that fast, so I support the NOGAPS interpretation.

A slower storm movement benefits Tampa, because the big trough in the U.S. mid-section has more time to sweep east before bringing the storm north. Anything that will delay the storm will be a help.

The rainfall pattern will be unusually lop-sided, with heavy rains on the north side of the storm. Tampa is bound to get some heavy rain, but, once again, the slower the storm moves, the briefer the period of heavy rain will be in Tampa.