The modeled forecasts are beginning to strain credulity right now. As part of Isaac’s interaction with land and water, and the trough over the eastern United States, the NOGAPS forecast shows the storm making a rightward jog today and tomorrow through the strait separating Haiti and Cuba. As part of that process, there should be clouds and showers over central Cuba right now – but there aren’t any. So, I’m thinking, ‘not gonna happen’!
In addition, I just don’t think they have the location of the storm right. It isn’t so much that there are multiple rotating centers to this storm. It’s just that the storm has a single center that is farther south than they think. It seems clear enough to me from looking at the satellite pictures (1 & 2).
So, I’m skeptical right now. Probably what will happen is they’ll have a big reset later today, once they get hurricane aircraft in there, discover the problem, and they’ll set their modeled trajectories further to the west, and away from Tampa.
Still, Isaac will make a fairly close approach to Tampa. Interestingly, because of all the interactions with land, the National Hurricane Center does not have the storm reaching Category 1, or hurricane, status until after it’s over the Gulf of Mexico, after passing Tampa.
So, Tampa may get sideswiped by a tropical storm. Monday may see rain, and a stiff breeze, in Tampa, but I doubt there will be any calamities.
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