Getting That Sinking Feeling About Tampa

Giving advice to the folks there:

Studying these things is something like studying bowling, and figuring out exactly which pins will be knocked down, and which will remain standing, right after the ball is released.

Looking harder at this thing, I'm beginning to adopt the National Hurricane Center consensus view. That view is perilous to Tampa!

The reason the heretical NOGAPS model kicks the storm to the right is because of a complicated interplay with a little low pressure area currently swirling over eastern Cuba and Haiti. NOGAPS says Isaac will collide with this region of vorticity off-center, creating two mutually-rotating low pressure lobes that will ultimately have the effect of kicking the storm to the right. Meanwhile, the GFS model suggests the collision will not be off-center, that the collision will be direct, that the low pressure area will be absorbed, and that the progress of Isaac will be unaffected, with no kick to the right.

As much as I like the NOGAPS model, I find the second line of reasoning more persuasive. The storm is still pretty far south, farther south than it needs to be for the kick to work, is more powerful than the eastern Cuban low, and will dominate any interaction. If so, then there will be no kick to the right, and the National Hurricane Center consensus view will prevail.

We'll know more as the storm passes Hispaniola. By that time, either there will be a kick to the right, or there won't be. I'm now thinking there won't be.

The high pressure area NE of Florida seems stronger than anything NW of Florida: another reason why a more westerly track is favored, and why the National Hurricane Center consensus view is likely to prevail.

NOGAPS has the storm raking Florida's east coast all during Monday, with closest approach to Tampa late Monday afternoon. The GFS model has the storm raking Florida's west coast, making closest approach to Tampa early Tuesday morning. Generally, NOGAPS tends to be a bit fast, so I'm thinking early Tuesday morning will be the time of closest approach.

If the NOGAPS view prevails, the airport in Tampa will remain open when you are traveling, but if the National Hurricane Center consensus view prevails, the airport will be closed.

Right now, I'm thinking it's a bad time to travel. The odds of real trouble are just too great.