Update On The Shape-Shifting Monster Near Cancun

The question is, what is it going to do now? It keeps changing its appearance, and the forecasts try to keep pace with its chameleon-like phases. To summarize these possibilities:

1. Area of heavy rain morphing into a tropical storm upon fairly-quick landfall today in Tampa (what I thought likely 2 days ago; probably won’t happen now);
2. Loosely-organized low pressure system in the central Gulf, with the area of heavy rain remaining offshore for a long period, and a tropical storm forming briefly near Mobile, AL, and with limited impacts in Tampa (what the NOGAPS model thought likely yesterday - probably won’t happen now);
3. A compromise between 1. & 2., where Tampa gets caught in a long train of advancing storms from the direction of Cancun, from the south, all weekend long, with flooding likely (what I thought might happen last night; might still happen);
4. Bouts of rain from thunderstorms moving across Tampa, then with a potential strike by a developing tropical storm off Cancun – today’s thinking. The NOGAPS model run that is becoming available just a few minutes ago is thinking that the storm will advance into the Gulf, form a tropical storm to the west of Tampa, with landfall near Panama City Sunday evening. Tampa would just get a lot of rain.

National Hurricane Center now thinks tropical storm development from the system near Cancun is likely, so we’ll just have to keep an eye on it.