Over the last two days, the weather forecasts have shifted the storm systems to the west, leading to the development of Tropical Storm Carlotta, which will start the summer monsoon season with a bang by afflicting the southern Mexican coast with non-stop heavy rain for days straight.
Things will get so bad on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec that there is an outside chance of the rarest of all tropical storm phenomena: the successful transition of a tropical storm from one ocean (the Pacific) to another (the Gulf of Mexico). I’ve never seen it happen myself. Probably won’t happen this time either, since of all the thin isthmuses in Central America, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec is the thickest and most formidable. But still, whatever happens, southern Mexico is going to be a mess.
As the big wheel of the Bermuda High spins around clockwise next week, it is likely to catch up with the Mexican mess, and send a big wave of tropical moisture north, in a broad belt, from Florida to Texas. Whether there will be threats to Tampa and vicinity remains to be determined, but for the moment Mother Nature has chosen to kick the can down the road for that area, and make a miserable mess of southern Mexico instead.
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