I’ve been watching the weather forecasts for the last two days, looking for developments that might affect the Tampa, FL, area, and noticed that the NOGAPS model has been forecasting the generation of a hurricane, starting from thunderstorms near Panama, and eventually moving straight north into the Gulf of Mexico in a week’s time.
Now, the NOGAPS model tends to be alarmist in some ways, often flagging hurricane births that never occur in the real world, but I’m getting worried, because the model has been showing the same basic forecast two days running, so the idea of such a storm at least appears plausible. So, it’s time to start keeping an eye out towards the south. Maybe it will happen; maybe it won’t. If a storm happens, and hits the areas near Pensacola or Mobile where so much rain has fallen recently, it may be a true disaster.
The National Hurricane Center is not showing anything yet, except for the likely development of a tropical storm in the Pacific near Panama.
The current satellite animation supports the idea of a Pacific storm, but doesn’t rule out a western Caribbean storm too.
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