Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Tempting, I'm Sure, But It's a Bad Idea

Markos Moulitsas wants Democratic voters to participate in the open 2012 GOP primaries, in order to help elevate the weaker Rick Santorum over the stronger Mitt Romney. This negative option is available to either party whenever open primaries occur.

I don't like it. Primaries should be closed, and even when they are open they should be closed.

I keep thinking that this is akin what got former California Governor Gray Davis into so much trouble: interceding in the 2002 GOP Republican primary with a big ad buy that succeeded in derailing the campaign of Davis' closest rival, Richard Riordan, and promoting the weaker Dick Simon in his place. Simon's defeat just made the Republicans mad, of course, and started the whole Recall ball rolling.

Moulitsas is not so close to the Obama campaign that it poses a threat to Obama. Still, I just don't like it:
It's time for us to take an active role in the GOP nomination process. That's right, it's time for those of us who live in open primary and caucus states—Michigan, North Dakota, Vermont and Tennessee in the next three weeks—to head out and cast a vote for Rick Santorum.

Why would we do such a crazy thing? Lots of great reasons!

Republican turnout has sucked, and appears to be getting worse by the contest. Unlike the 2008 Democratic primaries, which helped President Barack Obama and the Democrats to build a national organization, the GOP is an organizational disaster, with waning voter interest. That means that it takes fewer votes to have an impact than if Republican turnout was maxed out.

Several of the contests have produced razor-thin margins of victory. Rick Santorum won Iowa by 34 votes, Mitt Romney "won" Maine by 194 votes. It won't take many of us to swing contests the way we want them to swing.

The longer this GOP primary drags on, the better the numbers for Team Blue. Not only is President Barack Obama rising in comparison to the clowns in the GOP field, but GOP intensity is down—which would have repercussions all the way down the ballot.

The longer this thing drags out, the more unpopular the Republican presidential pretenders become. Just look at Mitt Romney's trajectory, which followed Herman Cain's trajectory, and Newt Gingrich's trajectory, and Michelle Bachmann's trajectory, and so on.

Rick Santorum will inevitably follow the same path once he gets properly vetted. Mitt Romney has been unable to stem the bleeding despite his tens of millions. Just imagine Santorum, with the far more radical record and a continued inability to raise real money.

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