The GOP 2012 Race, So Far

The Republican 2012 presidential nominating race reminds me of the Democrats' nomination race of both 1976 and 1988, when there were no obvious frontrunners, and the field was open to obscure candidates to come forward.

In 1976, I jumped on the Jimmy Carter bandwagon in January, 1976 - fairly early - and was pleased just how well he ran his race. In 1988, I was also pleased how quickly Michael Dukakis won the race. For years, he was brilliant on that PBS public affairs TV show that paired him off with William Rusher from the National Review - "The Advocates" - national reach there! - but I was also bewildered by how badly he ran his race after the nominating conventions.

The 2008 Republican nomination race displayed just how sensitive the GOP race is to the results of Super Tuesday. Candidates that can't instantaneously display a national reach, however feeble, fall flat on their face, immediately. In 2008, I thought John McCain displayed amazing guts by going deeply into debt, despite open rejection by the conservative base, in order to stay just-viable-enough for Super Tuesday (amazing guts, or proof-positive of insanity - take your pick). McCain knew he had broader reach than either Huckabee or Giuliani could muster, especially in places like California, and that he was the stronger candidate - but only if he could survive until Super Tuesday.

So, I suspect the key to 2012 GOP nomination race is deciphering just who has the broadest reach, and is able to stay viable in all quarters of the country. 'Broadest reach' is broadly-defined too: 'reach' can mean many things.

Friend Bruce E-Mails from Albuquerque what might be seen as the New Mexico angle. Bruce calls it 'The Joke of the Week':

ALBUQUERQUE (KRQE) - Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson performed well in Saturday’s conservative straw poll for possible presidential contenders.

Johnson came in third, tied with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, with six percent of the vote.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul came in first with 30 percent and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney came in second with 23 percent.

I'd say it's a mistake to call anyone at this stage 'The Joke of the Week'. In December, 2007, John McCain was 'The Joke of the Week'. If Gary Johnson methodically forms alliances with Republicans right around the country, with a view towards surviving until Super Tuesday, then he can have the last laugh.

Myself, I think Sarah Palin has the broadest reach right now. It's an ephemeral media reach, and as flimsy as tinsel, but it's there, so she's the frontrunner.

Salon has their analysis:

But Romney's problems are bigger that CPAC. He's been running -- hard -- for president since at least 2005, laboring to align himself with every right-wing position and pet cause and straining to make conservatives forget about his years as a Massachusetts moderate. He's been somewhat successful in this, but his Massachusetts healthcare program -- originally conceived as a brilliant way of using conservative principles to solve a big problem -- haunts him in the "ObamaCare" era.

...Paul, who has now won the CPAC straw poll for two years, is a nonstarter. The angry reaction of just about everyone who didn't vote for him when the results were announced Saturday is a good indication of the ceiling he faces.

Tim Pawlenty is trying furiously to be a contender, and has been since the 2008 race. But his speech fell flat and he ended up tied for sixth place in the straw poll with four percent.

Haley Barbour is pretty clearly running. He's scheduled a major fundraiser for his PAC in the coming weeks, and now comes word that he'll head to Iowa next month. ... But Barbour has some serious baggage. Like today's news that he's lobbied on behalf of the Mexican government for amnesty.

...John Thune is often touted a darkhorse, mainly because of his physical appearance. He also voted for TARP and is one of the worst GOP earmark offenders in the Senate. Some wonkish think tank-types like Mitch Daniels... whose CPAC speech was apparently savaged by Rush Limbaugh on Monday afternoon. Rick Santorum's speech was notable mostly for the large number of empty seats in the room. Sarah Palin didn't take part in CPAC, but in the wake of Tucson, there's more reason than ever to doubt that Republicans will actually anoint her if she runs. And if you think Newt Gingrich is the one to watch, well...

...Huckabee skipped CPAC -- he says its gotten too libertarian. But polls have found him to be the most popular Republican in the '12 mix. He's a rock star to cultural conservatives but is also immensely likable.

...And then there's Christie. He has insisted that he won't run in '12, and there's good reason to believe him. He spent nearly a decade of his life pursuing the job he has now, and it's a job he truly enjoys.