Tuesday, January 18, 2011

The Seemingly-Endless Cold Spell In Central Alaska

Here at work, I've been making helpful forecasts to co-workers locked in that formidable icebox known as Fairbanks, Alaska. I thought it was going to start warming up tomorrow. I was wrong:
The long awaited warm-up in interior Alaska is likely to take even longer to arrive. I had previously-thought temperatures would increase in a stair-step fashion, starting midday Wednesday, reach a plateau, and start rising again Thursday.

The temperature forecasts carried by the Weather Underground folks are now suggesting a day's delay, with temperatures increasing in a stair-step fashion, starting midday Thursday, reach a plateau, and start rising again Friday.

Nevertheless, looking at the maps, I'm skeptical. I'm thinking a final end to the cold weather may not arrive until late Sunday, or even Monday (my pessimism is based on this).

The trouble is the deep low southwest of the Aleutian Islands is moving slowly, so the storms on the low's periphery that arrive at Alaska's shores just aren't powerful enough to dislodge the cold air. Instead, their thrust is towards coastal and southeast Alaska, so there will be a warm-up soon in places like Juneau, Anchorage, etc., but probably not central Alaska.

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