In line with the speculative El Niño post from yesterday, here is some optimistic news: possible AZ rains are being forecast by the computer models, associated with a cutoff low passing near or through the area.
Cutoff lows are among the most difficult features for computer models to get right. Lack of adequate data constrains proper forecasts. Cutoff lows can generate lots of rain, or no rain at all, depending on the timing and location of their moves.
The GFS model forecasts a weak AZ storm over the weekend. The NOGAPS model forecasts a much stronger storm, on Monday and Tuesday of next week.
AZ is so dry right now: let’s hope for the bigger storm!
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