Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Whither Jimena?

The models seem to agree that Jimena will slow down on its northward advance, then stop. The models disagree about what happens after that.

Just over half the models think Jimena will then turn west. The minority of models think Jimena will turn east.

No model seems to think Jimena will continue going north. Nevertheless, if only to cause confusion, that's what I think Jimena will ultimately decide. It's possible Jimena will follow Nora's example and move up the Sea of Cortez, and stealthily enter Arizona from the SW when no one is looking.

Of course, Jimena doesn't have to enter Arizona to strongly affect the weather there. All it has to do is pump lots of tropical moisture into the state, and that may suffice to rejuvenate the monsoon. Maybe it's better that way - lots of rain, but without the floods!

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