Jimena has been a very puzzling storm so far. It has entertained by behaving differently than the forecasters first thought.
Yesterday, the storm crossed over Baja California from the Pacific. Last night, Jimena sat over the Sea of Cortez, suffered some mid-latitude wind shear, and weakened. Today, it is dumping lots of rain on Guaymas, Sonora.
According to weather forecasts, the weakening storm will change direction and head west tomorrow, crossing back over Baja California. I'm dubious about that forecast, since the storm shows little inclination to go west as of yet, but the storm's exact path from now on is less important, since it is fragmenting.
What is important is that the storm is dumping lots and lots of tropical moisture into northern Mexico, and not that far from Arizona. Today, the high-level moisture is streaming east into Big Bend country. The low-level moisture is likely to head north, however, and rejuvenate the monsoon this weekend. So, this may be a good weekend for rain in the Four Corners area, and into early next week.
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