Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Which Way Jimena?

Ha! I've never seen such a divergence of modeling opinions about the path of any tropical storm! The models are suggesting Hurricane Jimena could go in ANY direction!

The NOGAPS model suggests that Jimena will approach the Arizona/ Sonora border from the south, but then balk, reverse direction, head back south again, and then eventually head west. Amazing what an international border can do! Mother Nature flinches!

The trouble is that the storm is likely to enter this perfect little zone, where the southwesterly winds just match the pressure gradient from the northeast. So, the storm can't go west, or go east, or for that matter, can't go north or south either. So, like some out-of-control washing machine, the storm flings apart and breaks up in place, drowning the unfortunate Sonorans below in the process.

Nevertheless, I find this scenario implausible. The storm WILL go somewhere, just not very fast.

Here's hoping it goes north, like it's supposed to. You know, the natural order of things....

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