Eastward Shift

Updated forecasts for Hurricane Rita by the major models (this compilation is sometimes called the 'spaghetti model') now show landfall will occur just east of Galveston Bay, rather than west, which means the city of Galveston is unlikely to see the maximum conceivable storm surge (which generally occurs east of the eye of the storm). Still, it will be pretty bad - like getting run over by a logging truck rather than a locomotive. And it's prime oil country down there: Port Arthur, Port Neches, Beaumont, Baytown, and, of course, Houston - which means the prices of petroleum products can't help but soar, for the rest of the year at least. The recovery from Hurricane Katrina was already relying inordinately on Houston-area facilities, since so many Louisiana ports are out-of-commission, so delays in the recovery of oil supplies will multiply.

The forecasts also show Rita blasting through eastern Texas/western Louisiana, and then more or less stalling, and meandering around the Texarkana, AR area for several days. Not that windy, but it does mean that all of western Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma is vulnerable to very heavy, prolonged rains: Boston Mtns., Ouachita Mtns. - Arkadelphia and the Ouachita River Valley watershed. It's ironic that so many refugees from New Orleans, stranded in places like Houston, Shreveport, etc., may be forced to flee again.