Baffling Storm

The official forecasts keep pushing Hurricane Rita east, towards Port Arthur. The forecasts keep changing, though, for reasons that baffle me. Tonight, the heavy rains forecast in NW Louisiana/western AR/eastern OK don't look quite so formidable as they did this morning. But I'll believe that when it happens.

What bothers me is, why doesn't the storm jog west, towards Galveston, instead of inching east towards Port Arthur? I mean, there is a ridge to the north of the storm, so why doesn't it jog west in response to the atmospheric speed bump? There was a remark on the Central Florida Hurricane Center blog suggesting that ridge isn't very strong, but still, it's there.

Despite apparent unanimity at present, the different computer models seem to have trouble resolving the exact fate and timing of Rita's movements. A lot has depended (and continues to depend) on the evolution of the elongated trough over the western U.S., but because radiosonde stations are scarce over the eastern Pacific, the data driving that evolution are imperfectly understood. So, watch for sudden forecast changes, as predictions for the future try to keep pace with a surprising present!