Whatever Became of John Trijonis?

Yesterday, a friend asked, "do you know John Trijonis?" I replied that I had talked to Trijonis once on the phone when I was in graduate school. If I recall (it was 20 years ago), Steve Baruch (cousin of a friend) had suggested I talk with Trijonis regarding career tips in environmental science. At the time, one of my Atmospheric Sciences professors had been very critical of Trijonis (criticism I took by flinging numerous sacks of granulated salt over my shoulder, since the professor had just started consulting with a major copper producer regarding visibility issues in the American Southwest), so I was curious about Trijonis. My friend sent me an update regarding Trijonis' career (written in Engineering and Science, in 2001).

The opening picture of the article completely blew my socks away! The picture comes from the balcony of the Foundation Room, high atop the Mandalay Bay Hotel, in Las Vegas. I had copied and published the identical picture in my Weblog in October, 2003. What a trip that had been - I had managed to secure a scarce invitation up to that topsy-turvy nightlife fantasyland! It was very confusing, though: for a second, I thought my Weblog had been published in Engineering and Science!

Turns out, Trijonis has become a professional gambler: specifically, a consultant on sports betting. He has been using his proficiency in data analysis, and mastery of arcane archives, to exploit small advantages in knowledge of sports events, for himself and his clients. With my interest in blackjack, it seemed like I was following in Trijonis' footsteps to some extent - similar arcs in life's trajectory, so to speak, although Trijonis uses his knowledge to the fullest, opposed to my use of magical incantations and the power of delusion. Similar arcs in life's trajectory, like Evel Knievel leaping the Snake River Gorge, except that Trijonis makes it to the opposite side, whereas I entertain myself in the river rapids. Trijonis didn't suggest blackjack as the wave of the future: winnings were headed downhill for that game, but the future of poker looked bright.

Trijonis had a number of useful observations regarding gambling. As late as 1996, Cache Creek Casino allowed people to bank (or host) games of blackjack: sweet! Trijonis points out the Achilles heel of banking:

Taking the banker role in such situations can yield a great mathematical edge to the professional gambler. One big problem with banking is that, unlike the situation with its own games, the casino host has little incentive to prevent cheating against a private banker, so that fraud and chicanery have severely pared (and in many cases eliminated) profits.

Who would have thunk? Cheating. In a casino. How dare those nasty players! And with my money! Glad I eventually found out without having to pay that price!

What about the mathematical and scientific literature regarding gambling? The stuff I read was either too simplified to be of much use in dealing with chaotic casino realities, or just too hard to usefully grasp:

Concern over competition also explains why there is little decent academic literature on gambling; the winners cannot afford to alert their opponents. (In 1980, Professor of Mathematics Gary Lorden wrote an excellent article for Engineering & Science explicating how you can maximize your chances for a windfall in casino games with the percentages against you. There is little or nothing written of comparable quality, however, on how to turn the tables on Las Vegas and get the percentages in your favor.) As to sports betting, I have come across a few articles in the scholarly literature, especially economics journals, but they have all bordered on the nonsensical—with a few far over the border. To paraphrase an old maxim: in gambling (as perhaps in stock and commodity trading), those who can, do; those who can’t, publish.

I will have to track down Lorden's article!

I especially liked Trijonis disquisition on environmental science, and gambling:

In air-pollution research, there are only two significant sources of funding— governmental agencies and private industries (basically, the polluting industries). In my perception, the government agencies essentially want to determine if there is a problem and what can be done about it. The polluting industries, on the other hand, often seem in deep denial. They tend to assert that (1) there is no problem, (2) even if a problem exists, they aren’t the cause, and (3) even if they were the cause, the nature of the problem is too uncertain to try to do anything about it. Being a product of the ’60s and a little quixotic, I could only bring myself to work on government studies. Unfortunately, the largest and most lucrative consulting contracts came from industry. This situation not only severely limited my income, but it meant that my research was, in my view, subject to incessant carping from industry scientists and their consultants. (It appeared to me that I was continually trying to defend a simple, reasonable $40,000 government study from red herrings raised by some multimillion-dollar industry project.) The gambling was a godsend, providing me a great income and an objective test that my way of interpreting data was truly correct.

Funny! Funny! Funny! This I can appreciate!

Anyway, all of this was a bit too much. There had been a good portent lately: a friend had recently had some luck with slots. Plus, I hadn't played since the beginning of the year. So last night, I drove up to Rocklin, to Thunder Valley Casino, to tempt the Goddess Fortuna.

At Thunder Valley, they pump music into the parking lot to soothe the nerves of the arriving and departing players - ambient music to calm the quarrelsome masses. When I arrived, they were playing Nelly Furtado's "Powerless," my favorite song from all of 2004. Another good omen - I could feel the stars aligning! After several hours, and experiencing four boom-and-bust blackjack cycles, I came away ahead: $915 - $215 = $700.