Pushed South

As it crossed the Everglades, Katrina was pushed a little farther south than expected, which is very helpful for keeping the storm as far away as possible from Tampa. The storm has to make up that distance as it turns north, and that means it will be farther to the west when it finally passes Tampa Saturday night.

The NOGAPS model now is calling for the storm to make landfall around Pensacola, which is a little farther west than the official National Hurricane Center forecast landfall, with landfall mid-morning on Monday. Still, nothing is settled: rain intensity can vary dramatically so close to a hurricane's center - twenty miles one way or the other can make a big difference. So, Tampa might get lucky, and maybe the experience will be much like with Dennis: rain, clouds, but not so windy.

We'll see!