Katrina Cometh

Here's a map of several model-forecast paths for Katrina. The blue path closest to Tampa is the most likely - National Hurricane Center is choosing it for its forecast. I suspect it's a good forecast - the storm will hasten north to meet a trough moving through the eastern states, and since those mid-latitude troughs move fast, it will turn quickly. Intrusions of dry air are hampering development of the storm, which is good, but the storm will have a chance to strengthen again over the Gulf of Mexico.

Things will be uncomfortable in Tampa through Monday evening - a long time! Tampa will be the pivot point of the storm, as it changes direction from west to north, which means it will linger - and linger. Maximum wind forecast is still about 35 mph, but wind is unlikely to be the big challenge: there may be quite a lot of rain with this storm. I haven't seen a rainfall outlook yet, but it's likely to be high.