Rainy Sonoran Desert This Weekend

Lorenz's butterflys are flapping in unison, trying to get the moisture from Tropical Depression Emily up into AZ. Currently, the center of circulation is about 50 miles NW of Torreon, in Durango state. The entire east side of the Sierra Madre, north to the border, is filling up with Emily moisture, and it's now beginning to spill westwards over the mountain range towards the Pacific. The front of low-level moisture is just beginning to arrive in El Paso, TX: the moisture front hasn't quite arrived at Douglas, AZ yet.

Most of the computer models are not showing the possibility of lots of moisture coming northwards: only NOGAPS shows a significant diversion of moisture northwards, and not much even there. Nevertheless, the only question is how much comes north, not whether it comes north. There is a trough over the U.S. west coast, which will help direct moisture northward into the Great Basin, and Arizona.

These computer models don't handle these southern storms very well. I'm not terribly impressed.

Even if very little moisture comes north, the weekend will rock in Arizona, weatherwise!