Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Alluring Arizona

I'm wondering whether the typical SW "heat low" over the deserts is so well-established that it might actually lure Hurricane Emily's moisture up the Rio Grande Valley towards Arizona, confounding all predictions.

(Banish these thoughts! It's wishful thinking! Meteorologists need to stick to facts!)

Nevertheless, the northward progression of moisture is already well-established in the mountains of SW Mexico. The SW heat low is a real thing, although meteorologists usually discount it for guiding most synoptic systems. But remember, hurricanes are small enough that they respond to mesoscale events as well. And the hurricane is heading for a landfall a little closer (northward) than they were forecasting this morning. The forecasters expect the storm to start moving more to the west soon, but with Arizona as a lure, I don't see why it should....

(Banish these thoughts! It's wishful thinking! Meteorologists need to stick to facts!)

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