Wednesday, May 09, 2018

Maybe an Early Start

Forecasts are suggesting next week will be rainy in Florida - south Florida especially.

The long-range GFS forecast suggests an early start to the hurricane season, with a tropical storm/hurricane in Florida's vicinity 12 days from now - Monday, 5/21.

The long-range forecasts are often wrong, and the forecasts vary about where in Florida a storm might strike. I notice that forecast certainty increases when back-to-back forecasts agree, and the last three back-to-back forecasts all feature this tropical storm/hurricane.

Still, it would be a surprise, maybe unprecedented, to have a storm this early in the season. Hurricane season doesn't even start until June 1st.

So, hoping for a bad forecast.

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