Monday, October 01, 2012

A Little Too Paranoid About The "October Surprise"

It's fairly-easy to spook liberals these days about an "October Surprise":
According to a highly reliable source, as Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama prepare for the first presidential debate Wednesday night, top Republican operatives are primed to unleash a new two-pronged offensive that will attack Obama as weak on national security, and will be based, in part, on new intelligence information regarding the attacks in Libya that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens on Sept. 11.

...The source described the Republicans as chortling with glee that the Obama administration “definitely had intel” about the attack before it happened.

...He said they were jubilant about their new strategy and said they intended to portray Obama as a helpless, Jimmy Carter-like president and to equate the tragedy in Libya with President Carter’s failed attempt to rescue American hostages in Iran in 1980. “They are so excited about it,” he said. “Over and over again they talked about how it would be just like Jimmy Carter’s failed raid. They feel it is going to give them a last-minute landslide in the election.”
The Talk Radio folks, like Sean Hannity, were already pushing this angle last week, so it's not much of a surprise this week. Nevertheless, let's take a look at it.

It would not be surprising to me if terrorists had taken root in this year's semi-lawless Libya and used the occasion of a protest march to launch an assault against U.S. interests. It would not be surprising either if the U.S. caught intelligence of the upcoming attack. Indeed, the U.S. Embassy statement released in Cairo just prior to the attack, the one the GOP keeps referring to as appeasement, makes the most sense seen in that light. The diplomats could see the ten-ton truck of violence barreling right towards them, and they were doing the best they could to stop it. It also would not be surprising if the U.S. underestimated the size of the problem and botched its response. U.S. Administrations sometimes say silly things, and the Obama Administration would hardly be the first.

This is what the Middle East is like. All the time! 24/7!

So, what here, exactly, is the "October Surprise"?

Remember, the Iranian Hostage Crisis gained such disruptive power because it was so unprecedented and lasted so long. It was the TOP HEADLINE every single day for more than a year-and-a-half. Iran was the most important U.S. client in the area at the time, and its loss hurt.

In contrast, Libya hasn't dominated the headlines with anything like that power.

Plus, in any election, it's always the INCUMBENT ADMINISTRATION that is in the best position to execute an "October Surprise." It is the greatest power of incumbency, after all! Nixon proved that, in 1972, with all of Henry Kissinger's false Peace Process "progress." People like George McGovern saw right through it at the time, but that didn't mean it didn't work. People can be such chumps!

The U.S. has less power in the Middle East than conservatives like to pretend. Saber-rattling has a lot less punch in a marketplace full of saber rattlers. So, let's follow the GOP's lead and use the month of October to debate the Middle East. It's an important subject, after all. The truth is actually the Obama Administration's friend here. Lay it all out, problems and all. Let the voters sort it out, as they should.

And watch the Obama Administration pull some "October Surprises" of their own!

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