A Swing West?

So far, Isaac is behaving just about letter-perfect, according to National Hurricane Center forecast.

Most of the latest model runs are showing a swing away from Tampa, and a landfall towards Louisiana, but because not all the models are showing this development, the National Hurricane Center isn’t endorsing it yet, and is trying to split the difference – they are still showing a landfall around Pensacola (see below). Nevertheless, this swing to the west seems reasonable, and could well happen, which would give Tampa a bit more safety margin.