Newt Gingrich Wins The South Carolina Primary

After much wailing and gnashing of teeth, that old shipwreck Newt Gingrich tapped into that rich vein of conservative victimology and finally prevailed against Mitt Romney.

Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary on Saturday—according to him, not because of his debate skills, but because of his ability to “articulate the deepest-felt values of the American people.” He is bound by few limits in his ability to mold his accomplishments—as a professor, historian, and world leader extraordinaire—into Manichean fights of vast proportion. His oratory references the countless ways in which he virtually single-handedly lifted America from the pangs of unemployment and national calamity.

One thing I've seen virtually no mention of in the punditry, however, is that the GOP presidential race now reflects that centuries-old divide between the North and the South. There are countervailing currents - Northern evangelical (Santorum) and Southern libertarian (Paul) - and even high finance (Romney) versus TV expertise (Gingrich) - but basically it's North versus South. It's not even conservative base versus the elites, as some would have it. Romney and Gingrich both hail from, and speak for, elites. As long as Perry and Cain had fighting chances for the nomination, Gingrich couldn't fight effectively against Romney's money machine: the Southern vote was split. Now, the battle is on!

So, who wins? The GOP's base these days is suburban, first, with a strong anchor in the South, second. With the North turning increasingly Blue, and the northern GOP losing all salience, I think Gingrich ultimately wins. Gingrich, the fellow that my brother-in-law (among others) dismissed contemptuously as a liberal when he chastised Paul Ryan last May for right-wing social engineering, will be able to overcome Romney's millions. What a turn-around!

But Gingrich will prove a poor candidate in November against Barack Obama. Still, it will be a fun campaign!