These NOGAPS model forecast animations play out alternative futures - weather, to come. They get some details wrong, of course, but they are seldom dramatically wrong.
The current model forecast shows one of the bleakest forecasts I have ever seen. The forecast shows Hurricane Tomas, currently a rather humdrum Category 1 hurricane, as stalling in the immediate vicinity of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Given the complete destitution of Haiti, particularly after the January earthquake, having any hurricane pass anywhere nearby will be a catastrophe. Having the hurricane essentially park itself near Haiti for a few days will make the calamity many times worse. Humdrum Hurricane Tomas could be the Hurricane Mitch of 2010.
I pray this nightmare does not occur! I pray the model is wrong!
No comments:
Post a Comment