Maybe Things Won't Be So Bad This Month For Hurricanes In The Gulf

I've been worried that the Deepwater Horizon disaster could be made much worse by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, so I've been looking for budding hurricanes.

Nevertheless, except for Alex, there is little sign of these storms.

There are clear routes for such storms. One possibility is for mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) to form over Columbia, roll off over the southern Caribbean, travel along Central America, and emerge into the western Gulf of Mexico (much like Alex did). Despite lots of thunderstorm activity, these developments don't seem to be taking place right at the moment.

Another possibility is that storms can form, in place, in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, there is a depression (95L) in the northern Gulf right now, but further development is unlikely.

The Bermuda High seems very strong right now, which has pushed tropical lows in the Atlantic much farther south than usual. One consequence is that storm development in sub-Saharan Africa is greatly-affected. Sub-Saharan drought has shut down that most-reliable source of tropical lows - the sub-Saharan MCC conveyor belt, that can dump storm after storm into the Atlantic.

So, for the moment, the Gulf's luck is holding.....