Hurricane Alex is preparing to come ashore, and some of the forecasts show that as the storm breaks up and becomes part of a Great Plains cold front, it might drop very, very heavy rains in the deserts of northern Mexico - normally the very, very driest parts of Mexico. Deserts are ill-prepared to handle that much water, and so flooding is bound to happen there.
Looking out a week in advance, the NOGAPS model suggests that a tropical low will generate along the NE coast of Nicaragua by Sunday evening and strengthen into a tropical storm. By next Wednesday, the storm will be poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico, along a path likely to cross the out-of-control BP oil well, in ten days, or so.
How good is that forecast? The NOGAPS model is good at estimating storm paths, which is why I like it, but it is usually much too ready to generate the storms in the first place. NOGAPS usually predicts twice as many tropical storms coming into existence as actually come into existence. The GFS model doesn't show a new storm generating, for example.
So, how to tell? According to NOGAPS, the low that strengthens along the NE coast of Nicaragua actually forms in the Pacific, off the west coast of Columbia, and crosses the isthmus of Panama. That Pacific low should already exist - and looking off the southern coast of Panama - there's a big patch of clouds present. The Caribbean animation shows tropical thunderstorms already making the Panamanian crossing.
So, I'll make a big leap and forecast big problems for Gulf oil recovery by the weekend of July 10-11.
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