Is It Good News, Or Bad News?

Or a little of both?:

The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that consumers in July ratcheted back their credit by a larger-than-anticipated $21.6 billion from June, the most on records dating to 1943. Economists had expected credit to drop by $4 billion.

July’s retreat translated into an annualized decline of 10.4 percent. That followed a cut of $15.5 billion in June, or a 7.4 percent annualized drop, and was the most since a 16.3 percent decline in June 1975.

The latest cut still left total consumer credit at $2.47 trillion.

Wary consumers and hard-to-get credit both factor into the scaled-back borrowing. But economists are split on which force — lack of demand by consumers or lack of supply from banks — is having the bigger influence.

...But Erik Hurst, economics professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, says it is impossible to know for sure. “We are seeing declines in demand for loans from consumers but also declines in the supply of loans from banks. How much of the credit cutback is due to the decline in supply or demand, you can’t really tell.”

...In Tuesday’s report, demand for non-revolving credit used to finance cars, vacations, education and other things fell by $15.4 billion, also a record decline. That 11.7 percent pace was on top of an 8 percent annualized decline in June.

Consumers’ appetite for revolving credit, primarily credit cards, declined by $6.1 billion in July, an annualized rate of 8 percent that followed a 6.4 percent drop in June.

The magnitude of the drop surprised analysts. Some thought the Cash for Clunkers program — which began in July and aided auto sales and car loans — would have blunted cutbacks in other lending areas.

...“As great as the clunkers program has been, it’s tough to head out and buy a big ticket item when you don’t have a job,” said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. “Don’t expect consumer credit to increase any time soon; the job situation is dismal, at best.”