Optimism Bias

Gamblers have optimism bias, in spades. I do too. Maybe we all do, to some extent.

The National Weather Service has been interviewing victims to assess why some people failed to respond to tornado warnings in the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak of February 5-6, 2008:

In reviewing the public response, the team found that two-thirds of the victims were in mobile homes, and 60 percent did not have access to safe shelter (i.e., a basement or storm cellar). The majority of the survivors interviewed for the assessment sought shelter in the best location available to them, but most of them also did not have access to a safe shelter. Some indicated they thought the threat was minimal because February is not within traditional tornado season. Several of those interviewed said they spent time seeking confirmation and went to a safe location only after they saw a tornado. Many people minimized the threat of personal risk through “optimism bias,” the belief that such bad things only happen to other people.