Thursday, August 09, 2007

Bracket Florida With Storms

The current NOGAPS forecast still shows a tropical storm starting east of Florida by Tuesday, and moving NE. The forecast still shows it considerably offshore, so it should be no hazard.

NOGAPS also shows another tropical storm generating south of Cuba on Sunday, passing into the Gulf of Mexico SW of Tampa, seeming to hesitate, then heading westwards, reaching the Mexican coast north of Vera Cruz by Saturday morning.

While both storms will bracket Florida, neither storm looks all that powerful, and they will both move away from Florida.

While NOGAPS is great at storm path prediction, NOGAPS tends to overestimate the frequency of storm nucleation, so it will be interesting to see if both storms actually get going.

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