Shhh!

Deborah in Phoenix writes:

It just now rained - overhead!

I reply:

Maybe if you pretend it isn't there, it will go away.

This morning, she writes:

--just woke up to MAJOR thunderstorms--look at all that water. All the saguaros are thrilled!

I reply:

There's an interesting mismatch between the NOGAPS model and the satellite pictures. Even though there is another line of storms to your west, it looks as if it's thin and won't yield much, if any, rain. Nevertheless, NOGAPS seems to think it will develop, likely this afternoon.

In a conflict like that, satellite picture (based on reality) wins out. Nevertheless, it's interesting that NOGAPS went out on a limb.