Hurricane John Update

Earlier today, there was a wide gap between forecasts for the fate of Hurricane John.

GFS was saying, "OK, Tropical Storm John is heading TOWARDS Arizona, but alas, the rain won't cross the border."

NOGAPS was saying "be sure to close your windows, and pick up some sand bags at Home Depot."

Now, NOGAPS is beginning to adopt the GFS viewpoint that John won't quite cross the border. Instead, John is forecast to indirectly affect AZ weather through the moisture it releases, but the system itself will stay out of the state. This view has some evidence to support it: John is nearly stalled over the Sea of Cortez.

I continue to hold a stubborn, minority opinion that John may yet have a large influence on AZ weather. I think the mid-latitude system currently over Nebraska will attempt, and fail, to capture John. The attempt will lower pressures over AZ, thereby permitting northward movement of the storm.

We'll see!